Months of research has allowed us to create a map that will consistently offer a useful picture of the outcome of the ...

Harris and Trump are still competing for votes in several tossup swing states, according to 538's polling aggregate.

The presidency is decided by vote of the Electoral College, a temporary slate of 538 electors, all chosen by their state political parties. Each elector casts one vote; a presidential candidate ...

In this scenario, Trump wins 45 out of 100 times. In simplified terms, the regressions start off by looking at the vote share for each candidate in every simulation and seeing how the rest of the map ...

Click on this interactive map to create your own projections for the 2020 presidential race ... The Electoral College is comprised of 538 members, representing the 50 states and the District ...

Electoral votes are allocated to each state based on data compiled by the U.S. Census, which is conducted at the beginning of ...

Nearly 20 years in the making, the reform initiative seeks to change the way Electoral College votes are counted.

But a normal polling error could also result in one candidate winning easily.

One month out from Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a dead heat ...

Pick the winner in a state to see how 538's presidential forecast would change. What would happen if Trump wins Nevada? If Harris wins Pennsylvania? Check out 538's "what-if" interactive to pick ...

For 2024, 538 built a new presidential election forecast model from the ground up. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the forecast, how we process them and how we ...

Polling averages of Kamala Harris's and Donald Trump's support among Black, Hispanic, white, young, old, male, female, ...